EWJ FEB 59 2025 web - Flipbook - Page 18
This might be psychologically accepted by recruiters
needing to justify their diversity efforts to corporate
sceptics.
Results here show the successful runs require either
a disproportionate exit rate for men, or severe
changes in total staff. Otherwise, high female
recruitment bias stands out.
We can model this process, and the maths shows that
a 13.5% points boost would be enough to move the
BAME recruits from 25% to 46%., We use another
dedicated spreadsheet for this, but it could also be
done algebraically.
Third, I’ve described as “Stubborn States”. This is
where a company plans to change its workforce constitution, without any reference to the recruitment or
exits that entails. The most extreme example of where
this can be used is for company B, who has a 47,000
workforce in a specified work field. As at 31 March
2024, this was 35% Female. Their publicly stated Annual Report & Accounts) Diversity goal for 31 March
2025 stated a target of 46% Female.
We also looked at Company A, which has a senior
management Group of around 1,000 for total workforce around 15,000. Over the last 4 years, their M/F
staff ratio has increased, but the recruitment split has
always favoured men. Therefore, the change must
have been achieved by getting rid of men somehow.
Pressure on men to retire to hit targets might be age
discrimination.
Finally, our fourth category is split into two, both of
which relate to pay. The first (4a) is less mathematical,
but examines some published targets in more detail.
For example, a regulator R has about 200 staff, the
largest groups being HR and IT. HR is generally
about 70% Female, and IT 70% Male. The regulator
has pledged to cut its pay gap significantly. Average
pay for the geographical area is £43,000 pa for HR,
and £57,000 pa for IT. What is likely to happen?
This can be achieved by:
a) Losing about 5,000 men and replacing them with
women
b) Recruiting just under 10,000 women, no men, and
hoping all other leavers are exactly replaced.
While HR staff have increased steadily over the last
4 years, IT staff went up 50% over 3 years - then
dropped dramatically to the original level. Moreover,
the contractor numbers where pay is above that of the
highest director doubled over the year. It looks like
higher pay is higher pay for a reason.
c) Losing over 11,000 men, no women, and hoping
all other leavers are exactly replaced.
“Losing” would include retirements, voluntary
redundancies, and sackings.
Diagrammatically, below, the opening position is
shown on the left, and the three possibilities on the
right.
Finally, in 4b, we are in the early stages of looking at
executive pay differentials, which is a very political
topic. Compare the views of the High Pay Centre
is an
independent firm of actuarial consultants
with considerable expertise in derivatives
and pensions. Our excellent actuarial
consultancy is complemented by our
cutting-edge software and technical
support.
Windsor Actuarial Consultants
We are an owner-managed business.
Our consultants are major stakeholders in
the firm. They can provide the advice our
clients need and they also have a vested
interest in ensuring that they get the best
service possible.
This is clearly extreme. Where the position looks more
rational, it may still involve recruitment or exits that
look extreme. For this, we employ a “Monte Carlo”
method – here to test gender targets:
1) Enumerate the opening position.
The level of personal commitment from us
could not be higher.
Our clients include family lawyers, trustees
and sponsors of pension schemes,
financial advisers, solicitors and
individuals.
2) Assume recruits for each gender capped at 30% of
opening numbers
Peter Crowley, established Windsor
Actuarial Consultants in 2005, combines
a wide experience of financial products
and pensions with a commitment for
explaining the concepts in plain English.
3) Exits at same rate – applied to all openers and 50%
of recruits.
4) Gender Transition capped at 5% for each way
(optional).
4 St. Marys Road
London
W5 5ES
We then run the model several times. Ten or 100 runs
take a couple of seconds. 10,000 is the practical limit
on a spreadsheet – (we have kept the formulae on the
spreadsheet, rather than in the code for easier
access) – Python handles larger runs. We then look at
scenarios where target is achieved.
EXPERT WITNESS JOURNAL
Work undertaken worldwide
Tel: 020 7653 1908
Fax: 0207 681 2778
mail@windsorac.com
www.windsorac.com
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Peter also advises solicitors and other
professionals on the individual aspects of
pensions in divorce, compensation on
the loss of pension rights, pensions
mis-selling and reversions. He has
produced a substantial number of reports
on this subject,involving cases of varying
complexity, and including overseas
pensions
Windsor Actuarial Consultants are
sponsors of Chessboxing Nation
www.chessboxingnation.com
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