Expert Witness Journal Issue 63 October 2025 - Flipbook - Page 71
Is Home O昀케ce Diversity
Promotion Racist?
Diversity Maths is useful in reviewing diversity targets and achievements for any group of
sta昀昀. The Home O昀케ce publishes achievement and targets for various characteristics – let’s
look at Ethnic minority targets, and recruitment into the Senior Civil Service (SCS) – the
most senior, well paid and prestigious roles…
Progress against diversity targets
Probability of each year’s selection from a 24%
BAME Population
From https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/home-o昀케ceworkforce-diversity-statistics-2023-to-2024/home-o昀케ce-workforcediversity-statistics-2023-to-2024
So less than one chance in 20.
The goal is to increase SCS BAMEs from 6% in 2018
to 15% in 2025.
BUT THE HOME OFFICE WILL HAVE DONE
THAT, (OR PLANS TO DO THAT),
FOR SEVEN YEARS IN A ROW!
That’s by 9% (15% - 6%) over 7 years, or 9%/7 =
1.29% each year.
Chances of that are (.0427)7 or .0427^7 … which
equals 0.0000000002589,
or ONE CHANCE IN 3.9 BILLION!
Our simpli昀椀ed model assumes:
•
•
100 sta昀昀 in the SCS workforce at each age
40 to 60 (evidence suggests an average SCS
recruitment age of about 40). So, 2,000 sta昀昀 in
total.
Assume everyone retires at 60. Ignore deaths
and exits other than retirements.
To me, that looks VERY racist!?
Now, it might be that we can assume that all current
BAMEs are under age 54. In that case, we can assume
a 26 target. That looks more reasonable.
The chances of getting 26 or more from a population
of 24% BAMEs is 53.8%. So, to get that over 7 years
has a probability of .538^7 = 1.31%, or 1 in 53. This
looks a lot more justi昀椀able, but still pretty unlikely.
So what recruitment is needed? (Note, we also need
to compensate for the six (100x6%) that retire each
year at 60).
Our 2018 starting BAME population is 2,000 x 6%
= 120 people.
Now, let’s look at what the Home O昀케ce has
actually achieved in BAME recruitment to the SCS
up to 2024.
2025 end target = 2,000 x 15% = 300. Increase of
300-120 = 180 over seven years.
Over the six years to 2024, they achieved 9%, or an
increase of 3%, which is ½% per year (9%-6%)/6,
which amounts to 2,000 x .005 = 10. Add our six
retirement replacements to get 16 each year.
So that’s 180/7 = 25.7 say 26, plus the six retirement
replacements. 26 + 6 = 32.
The chances of fairly getting 32 or more BAME
recruits in one year are 4.27%. (Based on a 24%
BAME population – whether recruiting from All
Sta昀昀 or even top graduates, 24% is appropriate.)
EXPERT WITNESS JOURNAL
The odds on getting 16 or more are just over
98%, or 88.9% chance over the six years. Hardly a
challenging result, but one that perhaps re昀氀ects the
supply of suitable candidates.
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OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2025
